Hello everyone.
Please enjoy this guide to the upcoming British Open Golf Championships from our guest writer and resident golf expert, Mr. Neil "105.4" Cameron.
"This year is the most wide-open of the wide-open Opens, and is the trickiest to bet of all golf tournaments, as a squally shower or an hour of gale force winds can break the best of the best. Just ask Tiger when Ernie won at Muirfield, Woods described his 82 as a half decent round of golf, given the conditions for a couple of hours there. The funny thing was that Monty saw him on the range the following day and teased him with the words 'Nice round yesterday' to which Tiger responded 'Well it was better than your 84!'. Sometimes the big fella just needs to engage brain before speaking, just like his 'Two 66s and I will be right there on Sunday' at Loch Lomond last week. Needless to say a 74 next day meant the dreaded letters MC (well dreaded for a golfer anyway!) next to his name.
So what of Woods.....well as Mr Walls would testify the Open normally results in this writer reaching for the phone and announcing 'All in' on Tiger, but this year is slightly different. I have just got married and the £500 bets on Woods are a thing of the past. This year I will be trying to spread 20 quid as thinly as possible over a few longshots.
Tiger is putting some lead tape on his putter as the greens at the Open are always slower than he is used to....but here's the thing, he has never done this before (until he was on slow greens earlier this year - at the AT&T i think at Pebble Beach). It's no secret that his putting, though still outstanding, has not been as good this year as in previous years and the fact that he is altering his faithful putter that he has used for more than a decade, alerts me to the fact that he has concerns over his stroke. It's only a hunch but at 3/1 or thereabouts, and the fact that my budget has been reduced by a factor of 25, means that I will be avoiding the great man. If he turns up and putts decent, he wins, as long as he doesn't end up getting a raw deal with the weather....another thing to factor into any potential bets.
The weather in Scotland is changeable at best and in the Open that can play havoc, if you end up on the wrong side of it. That also should be taken into consideration in any bets.
Mickelson was good last week but came up just short. His driving was very erratic and he will be punished far more greatly for that at Carnoustie.
Els looked great last week but is another who has major concerns over his putting. At the prices I will be leaving those 2 alone.
All the British players are underpriced and though I wouldn't put anyone off Casey, Rose or Harrington, they just ain't value for me.
Another big question, can we trust Sergio? Well with the belly putter out last week, he putted a lot better and that is all that has held him back in the past, not that he would agree. The fact that he appears to have accepted that his putting is poor, is great news for those who fancy him to go well. He is a much bigger price than normal at 40/1 or thereabouts, and he gets the first Cameron fiver. The pressure is off him as he hasn't been doing much and is pretty lightly raced this year. He went close last year at Hoylake and with a putter he is comfortable with he might just do it.
The Open normally sees a strong showing from some unheralded Americans and with this Top 15 last year, one who fits the bill is relative newcomer, Sean O'Hair. He said he really enjoyed it last year, which is quite refreshing, as clowns like Scott Hoch in the past and this year, Woody Austin, can't be bothered with playing golf on courses and in conditions that have been prevalent since time began. More fool those guys, but some Americans love the challenge, and wouldn't miss it. Another fiver on O'Hair at 140/1 or thereabouts.
I would always have a fiver on Monty and always have done but not this time. Needless to say if he is in contention on Sunday, he will be seeing some of my hard earned but not at the outset.
One tip for Open betting novices, you don't have to go in all guns blazing before the off, you could sit out the first 2 days, so that the weather evens itself out. If it is calm in the morning, then normally the wind picks up in the afternoon, and as each player has one 'late' start and one 'early' start, then after 2 days, things have evened out. Obviously you don't get the prices then, but if want a cheeky tenner on one of your favourites or the leaders at 8/1 on Saturday morning then it may pay to do so.
Onto the Top GB&I and Top South African markets, the one that stands out for me is Graham McDowell in the former. He grew up playing links golf and is playing very well at the moment. 20/1 for top GB&I represents value for me.
A rather insane call on the Top SA is David Frost. He was a class golfer in his day, one of the best in the world, is playing very solidly at the moment and was well placed last time at Carnoustie. He is huge value at 33/1 in that market with not too many to beat and doubts over Els and Goosen, the class of the market.
There we go that's my £20 spent.....other notables are Love III at a huge price 389/1 (purely a hunch as his form has been rotten, but he has a decent record at the Open), Poulter at 74/1 (played great last week and has looked good in the past at Opens), Carl Petterson (a top player nowadays in the States and played well in the Open last year) at 169/1 on Betfair and Justin Leonard at 200/1 (just finding his feet after a quiet year or two and former winner of the Open).
If you are looking for a token Scot to give you a run for your money, then try Alastair Forsyth. He has played well in Opens before but normally goes backwards on the weekends in the past, he is playing well at the moment and though very unlikely to hold on, if he gets up there, he could be worth a trade outright or a small play on the Top GB & Ireland market. The last time I put up a token Scot at Carnoustie, it was Paul Lawrie and we all know what happened there.
Stick a quid on him too then!
Woods should win, but has come up short twice already this year in the Majors and others represent greater value.
Good luck!
Neil"
Thanks for that Neil. It's a brave man who puts his knackers, or indeed his credibility, on the line by posting such wild and unlikely predictions. Talking of which, here are the tips from wallsbet.com:
Place your hard earned on the following :
Donald 36-1 ew
Choi 75-1 ew
Bjorn 125-1
Forsyth 660-1 ew
MCGinley 450-1
JJ Henry at 640-1
Good luck punters!!!
K&K
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